A turning point for US energy policy?

We consider how Joe Biden’s election win might change the outlook for the energy sector.

  • We expect the Democrats to embark on an aggressive push towards decarbonising.
  • The coal industry is likely to be a standout casualty.
  • Smaller pure-play exploration and production companies are most likely to face headwinds.

In 2017, not long after he entered the White House, Donald Trump declared his grand ambition: to make the US self-sufficient in energy. The aim, he said, was to “become, and stay, totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC1 cartel or any nations hostile to our interests”.

The president enacted a raft of changes linked to these ambitions: loosening drilling restrictions on federal lands and parks, increasing support for pipeline infrastructure, dismissing the risks of climate change, and undoing Obama-era regulations on emissions from coal power plants, automobiles and oil and gas wells.

A U-turn in prospect

Now, with the election of Democrat Joe Biden as president, the door is open for a U-turn in these policies as the US pursues a more open, multilateral agenda. This change of direction could be an abrupt one as government policy aligns with a gathering global consensus in favour of environmental concerns.

We expect an aggressive push towards decarbonising

On climate, the Democrats are unlikely to run against the global tide, and instead we expect them to embark on an aggressive push towards decarbonising. Depending on how pliant the Senate will be, restrictions on new oil drilling on federal land, in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Arctic Alaska could well be re-enacted. Progress on building the controversial Keystone XL pipeline could also be stopped in its tracks. Emissions – whether from automobiles or by energy companies – will once again come under the spotlight. These are seen to be key to decarbonising transportation as electric-vehicle penetration grows.

For companies which have benefited from US energy policy under Trump, the election of Joe Biden is seen as a negative – but even here, this will have less impact than in any ordinary year, given the glut in oil, gas and coal supply, the collapse in demand, and the consequent declines in energy-company share prices witnessed through 2020.

Coal – a likely casualty

One standout casualty, however, is likely to be the coal industry. Despite all the sound and fury around Trump’s pledge to “make coal great again” over the four years to November 2020, in the cold light of day, efforts to put the fossil fuel front and centre of US energy policy amounted to little more than a series of soundbites. As of Q3 2020, for instance, shares in the country’s largest coal producers were well below their immediate highs following Donald Trump’s 2016 election, with several producers remaining in bankruptcy.2 From generating more than half of America’s electricity 10 years ago, coal now accounts for around one fifth – and that level is falling. Even amid a Trump-mandated push for fossil fuels, the fastest-growing electricity source was wind.3

Partly, coal’s collapse is the consequence of market forces: an overabundance of supply coupled with its replacement by cleaner, cheaper gas, and the slump in demand owing to Covid-19. But it also points to the relative impotence of any sitting president when it comes to enacting lasting change on domestic policy – particularly if that change runs counter to the prevailing mood music.

The most you can say about Trump and fossil fuels is that his actions had an impact at the margin. They probably helped support general positive sentiment towards investment, while giving CEOs an excuse to ignore important questions on their environmental actions, such as flaring and methane leakage.

The investment community is becoming more environmentally conscious

As in so many spheres of life, it is market forces that win out over policy – and that is also likely to be the case under a Biden presidency. However, the investment community is becoming more environmentally conscious, more alive to transition risks associated with climate change, and more likely to push for sustainable investments away from polluting companies. In that sense, CO2 producers in the energy sector are likely to experience headwinds regardless.

Smaller pure-play exploration and production companies most likely to face headwinds

The same goes for companies in the energy sector, with the smaller pure-play exploration and production companies most likely to face headwinds, especially the smaller-cap companies which are more exposed to risks around activity restrictions and which have greater federal land exposure. Similarly, this hurts US services companies, particularly domestically focused ones, while refiners would face a higher cost of oil, alongside potential charges for their emissions and demand for their products slowing. The bigger upstream companies, including the majors, are more diversified both in the US and internationally, so, again, this could lead to further consolidation, which we believe would be a good thing for the industry.

References:
1. The Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries, an intergovernmental organisation of 13 nations accounting for an estimated 44% of global oil production.
2. The Washington Post: ‘Trump pledged to bring back coal. Like everything under him, it collapsed instead’, 12 June 2020
3. Ibid.

Important information
This is a financial promotion. These opinions should not be construed as investment or other advice and are subject to change. This material is for information purposes only. This material is for professional investors only. Any reference to a specific security, country or sector should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell investments in those securities, countries or sectors. Please note that holdings and positioning are subject to change without notice.

Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Newton Investment Management Limited is registered with the SEC as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Newton’s investment business is described in Form ADV, Part 1 and 2, which can be obtained from the SEC.gov website or obtained upon request. ‘Newton’ and/or ‘Newton Investment Management’ brand refers to Newton Investment Management Limited.

This material is for Australian wholesale clients only and is not intended for distribution to, nor should it be relied upon by, retail clients. This information has not been prepared to take into account the investment objectives, financial objectives or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision you should carefully consider, with or without the assistance of a financial adviser, whether such an investment strategy is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.

Newton Investment Management Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the UK under UK laws, which differ from Australian laws.
Newton Investment Management Limited (Newton) is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN. Newton is providing financial services to wholesale clients in Australia in reliance on ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional) Instrument 2016/396, a copy of which is on the website of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, www.asic.gov.au. The instrument exempts entities that are authorised and regulated in the UK by the FCA, such as Newton, from the need to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 for certain financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients on certain conditions. Financial services provided by Newton are regulated by the FCA under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United Kingdom, which are different to the laws applying in Australia.