More important for future returns is the long-term outlook for earnings per share, which is the return enjoyed by shareholders rather than the GDP growth that most commentators focus upon. The emerging markets equity team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management currently expects average earnings per share growth for the companies covered to be over 15 per cent a year for the next five years. If this expectation is right then the combination of earnings per share growth at twice the global level, modest currency appreciation and a current dividend yield of 2.5 per cent (likely to grow at 12 per cent per annum) should give investors an attractive return from these levels over the next five years. The emerging markets story is by no means without risk, including the strategic risks of governance and inflation and tactical risks around earnings growth and valuation. J.P.Morgan’s current view on these risks is summarised in the table above. However, for investors who are comfortable with these risks, there is considerable reason for optimism around emerging markets, driven by global rebalancing and by the longterm urbanisation trend, which is spurring dramatic improvements in productivity and consumption.