Flight from cash imminent: AMP Capital

Falling official interest rates in Australia will dampen individual investors’ appetite for cash term deposits and increase appetite for dividend-paying stocks, listed property and other yielding assets, according to AMP Capital Investors.

The Sydney-based fund manager, which oversees about $100 billion in assets, official interest rates to fall from 3.5 per cent to 3 per cent or lower in the next six months as the Reserve Bank of Australia responds to below-average business and consumer confidence, slowing economic growth and benign inflation, Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist, said.

Three-year term deposit rose to 7 per cent in 2010 and 2011 as they were driven by higher official interest rates and the so-called war for deposits among banks seeking to diversify from wholesale sources of funding. Average term-deposit rates are likely to fall to about 4 per cent, Oliver said in a research note published on July 24.

Individual investors may buy other yielding assets – such as stocks providing “decent and sustainable” dividends, real estate investment trusts, unlisted non-residential property and corporate debt – as they seek reliable income amid volatile markets, Oliver said.

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Geopolitical risks rewire asset allocation ‘operating system’: GIC

Some investors are “missing the point” of geopolitical risks by equating them to the disruptions from conflicts and wars, according to GIC chief economist Prakash Kannan, but in reality, geopolitical risk is no longer episodic or peripheral. This means investors need to think harder about inflation and country composition in their portfolio.

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