Advice consultancy Finura Group predicts HUB24 and Netwealth will successfully leverage their large balance sheets to own the end-to-end advice process as the pair emerge as leaders in a platform oligopoly.

The 2026 iteration of Finura’s advice tech predictions notes that as platform usage continues to consolidate, an advice firm’s primary platform provider will be in a stronger position to “own the adviser desktop” from a data and workflow perspective.

The report notes that HUB24 and Netwealth command 80 per cent of net flows and both have nine times the market cap of Iress, which owns industry CRM market leader Xplan. Although Netwealth and HUB24 would technically make a duopoly, Finura joint managing director Peter Worn believed there is space for at least a third competitor.

The prediction comes as Netwealth posts quarterly results showing it has fended off any impact over its role in the collapse of First Guardian. It recorded a second consecutive quarter of record custodial funds under administration (FUA) inflows ($8.4 billion in December), reaching a total of $125 billion as of 31 December 2025.

Late last year Netwealth agreed to pay $101 million in remediation to First Guardian clients, which it said it is on track to do by 30 January.

In a webinar on Thursday presenting the predictions, Worn acknowledged Netwealth’s positive results despite a 14 per cent share price drop over the past year.

“First Guardian has had an impact on the share price in the short term,” Worn said.

The Finura report said both platforms can outspend competitors on research and development, and small advice practices don’t need full CRMs if their platform does 80 per cent of the job.

“This isn’t a platform war anymore… it’s ecosystem construction,” the report said.

“Advisers love their platforms more than their advice tech providers. Platforms remain a key source of truth at many points in the advice process and, for now, the lowest-cost way to implement most advice.”

Finura predicted last year that the “era of platform promiscuity” would come to an end with a move to “platform monogamy” – or, in simpler terms, that advice firms would use fewer platforms.

“I got a lot of heat for it but lo and behold, that started to manifest,” Worn said, noting Investment Trends research released later in the year that found advisers were using fewer platforms.

“When we started the company around five years ago it was around 3.2 platforms [used per firm], it’s now dropped to two. Curious to see where it lands this year.”

Last year, Finura split its business into two entities – consulting and software applications – with HUB24 taking an equity stake in the latter. The consulting arm remains owned by Finura’s employees.

Price wars

Despite the likely platform oligopoly, Worn said it’s unlikely there will be a price war over fees. Instead, the platforms will rely on creating an end-to-end ecosystem to maintain adviser loyalty.

“I know a lot of people have predicted platform fees will drop a lot, I’m less confident of that,” Worn said.

“In the short term it’s within everyone’s interest to keep platform fees kind of where they are, unless a real disrupter comes in.”

The report also predicts licensee services will face new competition from platforms that provide managed accounts and which “take further steps to develop intimacy with their key practice relationships”.

“Expect to see some strategic partnerships emerge between managed account providers and tech services companies,” the report said.

And as licensees have become reliant on managed accounts and services for revenue, competition from platforms will only further challenge the part of the advice chain that has struggled to capitalise on the tailwinds in the profession, Finura argued.

Worn noted the market cap of licensees is worth about $390 million while the market cap for managed account providers is estimated to be around $3.2 billion, which he thinks will double in the next few years.

Finura pointed to ASX-listed Generation Development Group-owned Evidentia’s acquisition of Encore Advisory as one such example of an asset consultant looking to expand its practice management support capabilities.

“They have the scale, the margins, and the incentive to support firms in going the self-licensed path,” the report said, acknowledging this wasn’t a tech prediction.

“This is a new form of vertical integration, with a technology backbone. The product power couple (platform and managed account provider) can offer turnkey solutions.”