Like almost every step of his polarising career, Kevin Rudd’s removal as Australian Ambassador to the US has triggered a range of reactions. 

While Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the former PM had been an “excellent Ambassador”, former Liberal foreign minister and High Commissioner to the UK Alexander Downer concluded Rudd had done only a “reasonably good” job and caused harm to the US relationship with his criticisms of President Donald Trump – to say nothing of the spectrum of responses on social media. 

For the leaders of Australia’s superannuation industry, though, Rudd’s exit 12 months ahead of schedule is something of a blow, given the Ambassador was a driving force behind the growing recognition of the increasing global might of our pool of fiduciary capital among America’s political and business elite.

Rudd, alongside Australian consul-general in New York and former AustralianSuper trustee director Heather Ridout – and supported by Macquarie Group and IFM Investors (arguably the nation’s two most successful financial exports) – pulled off a blockbuster summit of mostly industry super fund executives in Washington DC and New York last year. 

The summit managed to attract key officials in the Trump Administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Wall Street bigwigs like JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon and Blackstone boss Stephen Schwarzman. 

Its goal was to highlight the private sector economic ties between Australia’s retirement savings and the US economy – particularly its tech-heavy sharemarket – in a display of soft power at a time when the relationship was perceived to be strained. Though it did not stop the Trump Administration from slapping a tariff on Australia, it did help pave the way for warmer US relations and the subsequent critical minerals deal between the two allies. 

Indeed, Australian superannuation fund flows into US markets formed a specific plank of the deal –  although it was in reality more a projection of organic growth rather than a pledge of additional government-directed capital in a deft political move from the Albanese government.

And in announcing the resignation, Albanese and Wong said Rudd had “put Australia’s superannuation industry on the map with the United States” in what was likely a reference to both the summit and the critical minerals deal. 

It is understood a second iteration of the US summit scheduled for March this year will still go ahead, with Rudd expected to stay in the role until the end of that month. 

But beyond that, the industry’s newfound status as a mechanism for what former Australian Retirement Trust chair Andrew Fraser has called “investment diplomacy” is uncertain. 

And there is no evidence that top candidates being touted as Rudd’s replacement will necessarily continue the project. 

On the Labor side, former frontbench ministers Joel Fitzgibbon and Stephen Conroy are reportedly in contention for the plum job (although the latter might be vetoed on the basis of his own record of Trump criticism, which was a large part of Rudd’s challenge in the role).  

In contrast to many other ex-Labor MPs, the pair have seemingly little to no historic or current ties to industry super funds. In fact, Conroy’s main foray into the heated world of superannuation policy was to move amendments to the SIS Act in 2003 requiring them to disclose voting records and explain decisions made in members’ interests.

To that point he may not be seen as among the industry’s most reliable political allies. Fitzgibbon similarly has had little formal relationship with the industry funds movement and had relatively little exposure to super policy over his quarter-century in Parliament, apart from publicly backing higher SG rates, which is a mainstream fixture of the Labor party platform.

But certainly either gentleman would be seen as a better friend to industry funds than former Coalition PM Scott Morrison, who has been reported as a candidate, albeit an unlikely pick for his former opponents. Since leaving office, Morrison has based himself largely in the US and is close to the defence industry as well as being a reported regular at Trump’s Mar-a-Largo Palm Beach country club.

He was also accused by the Australian Council of Trade Unions in 2021 of active bias against industry super funds and led a government that controversially introduced an early release scheme during the Covid-19 pandemic that the broader sector strongly opposed.

Morrison was also an advocate of super funds deploying more capital at home and a sceptic of their global forays, indicating he may not be supportive of super’s utility to the US alliance. 

Less overtly political candidates for the role such as Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty would presumably be more likely to adhere most closely to the government’s position. 

But whoever replaces Rudd will face the thorny task of dealing with the volatile Trump White House. And super funds will grapple with yet another element of uncertainty stemming from it.