Keynote: US exceptionalism and the arc of history 

The narrative of US decline is fashionable and pervasive – but is it accurate?   

Drawing on Hoover Institution research on the structural sources of great-power durability and the comparative history of imperial collapse,  this virtual lecture will argue that political turbulence and systemic decline are not the same thing — and that confusing them is a category error with serious consequences for how investors price geopolitical risk. Is the stress America is visibly under a self-correcting oscillation of the social media age, or something more structurally corrosive?