What investors can learn
from Donald Bradman

Investors face a similar problem. Like our captain, the future outcomes of present decisions are uncertain. They can correctly assess opportunities to make money, but unforeseen events can lead to unexpected losses. Results are there for asset consultants, clients, competitors and the media to analyse with the benefit of hindsight.

Unfortunately, this focus on results promotes negative behaviour that investors need to avoid. In his book The Little Book of Behavioral Investing – How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy, James Montier points out that people held accountable for the outcome of their decisions, rather than the decisions themselves, will generally:

• Focus on outcomes with a higher certainty (ambiguity aversion)

• Collection of all information, both useful and useless

• Have a preference for compromise options

• Selections of products with average features on all measures over a product with mixed features (that is, average on four traits, preferred to good on two and bad on two)

• Increase the degree of loss aversion that people display.

Montier adds that “none of these features is likely to serve investors well. Together they suggest that when every decision is measured on outcomes, investors are likely to avoid uncertainty, chase noise and herd with the consensus”.

Each of these parallels between cricket and investment has an important moral for investors. Not only do investors risk their capital and batsmen their wickets, both need to fully understand the opportunities and risks of their decisions. Both must have a plan to win, but at the same time they must remain flexible and adapt strategies to changing circumstances. Finally, both must resist the pressure of being held accountable for the results of decisions and not the decisions themselves.

 

Daniel Grioli is an investment analyst and commentator.

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