Jonathan Pain, respected investment consultant and former funds manager, says 2011 is the year for the emerging Asian nations, predicting investors will be cautious in investing in the European market and suggesting instead that the emerging Asian nations will be investors’ best choice in the year to come.
“The big, big, big story of 2011 is going to be companies that have the scale, the reach and the brand to satisfy the voracious appetite of the Asian consumer,” he said. “We’re talking about the big multi-nationals; the big brand names … companies that are exposed to and benefit from the inevitable increase in discretionary spending in Asia are going to be the winners.
”The keynote speaker for the upcoming 14th annual Investment Administration Conference – at the Sydney Hilton Hotel on February 15 – will focus on the emerging Asian market in his address through his primary focus on the rebalancing of the global economy and the increasing divisions between those nations he refers to as submerging and emerging.
Pain has said the submerging nations, which he identifies as the US, the UK, Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Japan, will spend less and save more while the emerging nations which are led by China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia will spend more and save less.
Pain has predicted the emerging markets will save the submerging markets through spending more, but warns of a long period of frugality in the future of the submerging world. “The centre of gravity has shifted inexorably to Asia in the last 5 years and the GFC illuminated the remarkable role that countries such as China and India played in pulling us out of the mess we were in a couple of years ago,” Pain said.
Yet, according to Pain, this isn’t to be the greatest economic stumbling block of 2011; instead Pain cites the sovereign debt crisis, with the longevity and the survival of the European Union also a question mark.
“In the short term, the biggest question mark and the biggest challenge and stumbling block for markets will be concerns surrounding the longevity and the survival of the European Union,” he said. “The market is concerned about the possibility for a restructuring of debt in those countries, investors will have to take a discount, suffer losses on their exposure to government bonds issued by those countries. That is a question mark that is something the markets are nervous about.
The Investment Administration Conference, presented by the Australian Custodial Services Association in partnership with ‘Investment Magazine’, has more than 30 speakers throughout the day and incorporates a gala dinner which includes the annual ACSA awards for excellence, to be presented by Malcolm Turnbull MP. The dinner raises funds for Wayside Chapel