Nonlinear thinking in a linear market

[vc_empty_space]“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom,” wrote science fiction writer Isaac Asimov—a thought that rings true today as policymakers struggle to catch up with what’s occurring in the world.

In respect to both the pandemic and its economic and market impact, we are dealing with a situation that is nonlinear. The coronavirus pandemic has been growing at a tremendous pace, and the resulting movement of economic realities is mostly without precedent.

It is difficult for humans, who tend to be linear thinking, to adapt. But if we can think in a nonlinear way, I believe we can find investment opportunities.

READ: Nonlinear thinking in a linear market

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Super funds warned on ‘a bloody big fall in the market’

The scale of superannuation funds and their allocation to growth assets – particularly US equities – illustrates a systemic risk that could arise if the US market were to decline significantly. The Fiduciary Investors Symposium heard that the probability of zero or lower real returns for a decade or more isn’t trivial, and that a decline, if it comes, is less likely to be a short, sharp shock than a slow grind downwards.

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