Bridgewater’s daily observations

[vc_empty_space]The two big forces at work and their differential impacts over time
We regularly get the question, “are we in a secular bear market?” That question is impossible to answer with any degree of confidence. However, we also see it as a question that reflects more upon the world we’ve been in than the world we are now in. In this new world, we see two giant forces at work operating against one another, having disparate impacts across companies and countries. One is the massive global collapse of income and spending. The other is the countervailing reflationary production of liquidity via fiscal and monetary policies.

READ: Bridgewater’s daily observations – May 1, 2020

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Super funds warned on ‘a bloody big fall in the market’

The scale of superannuation funds and their allocation to growth assets – particularly US equities – illustrates a systemic risk that could arise if the US market were to decline significantly. The Fiduciary Investors Symposium heard that the probability of zero or lower real returns for a decade or more isn’t trivial, and that a decline, if it comes, is less likely to be a short, sharp shock than a slow grind downwards.

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