V, U, W, L: Which shape will the recovery take

[vc_empty_space]“It’s a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”

So said President Harry Truman after World War II and it holds true in 2020, as the coronavirus triggers an economic crisis not seen since before his time.

The global economy is expected to contract by 3 per cent this calendar year 1 , though some market economists expect it to be more. Unemployment is soaring. Businesses are closing. The only question is whether it’s a recession, a depression or something completely new to economics a hiber cession.

But what about the recovery? When will it come and what will it look like?

READ: V, U, W, L: Which shape will the recovery take

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Super funds warned on ‘a bloody big fall in the market’

The scale of superannuation funds and their allocation to growth assets – particularly US equities – illustrates a systemic risk that could arise if the US market were to decline significantly. The Fiduciary Investors Symposium heard that the probability of zero or lower real returns for a decade or more isn’t trivial, and that a decline, if it comes, is less likely to be a short, sharp shock than a slow grind downwards.

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