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V, U, W, L: Which shape will the recovery take

“It’s a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”

So said President Harry Truman after World War II and it holds true in 2020, as the coronavirus triggers an economic crisis not seen since before his time.

The global economy is expected to contract by 3 per cent this calendar year 1 , though some market economists expect it to be more. Unemployment is soaring. Businesses are closing. The only question is whether it’s a recession, a depression or something completely new to economics a hiber cession.

But what about the recovery? When will it come and what will it look like?

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